[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 171900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171900
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-172200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0110
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

Areas affected...northern Mississippi through middle Tennessee and
far southern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 171900Z - 172200Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snow continues to spread
northeastward into the discussion area from the southwest.  1" per
hour rates will gradually become increasingly likely over the course
of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Heavier reflectivities are beginning to appear in radar
mosaic imagery from bear Oxford, MS to southwest of Nashville, TN
over the past hour.  The precipitation itself is likely tied to
isentropic lift across upstream areas of Arkansas/Louisiana where
50-60 kt low-level flow continues to impinge on a shallow
sub-freezing airmass.  The precipitation itself is outpacing most
model guidance, and with low-level moistening occurring beneath the
precipitation shield, areas of moderate to occasionally heavy snow
should begin across the discussion area over the next 1-2 hours or
so.  Snow should be the be dominant precip type, though point
forecast soundings indicate enough of a warm layer aloft to support
occasional mixing with sleet at times.

..Cook.. 02/17/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35728931 36328805 36698681 36998548 36878467 36028475
            35068578 34378752 34048888 34208979 34629011 35068978
            35728931
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