[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 111002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111002
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-111500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0069
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

Areas affected...eastern Arkansas...northwest Mississippi through
western Tennessee

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 111002Z - 111500Z

SUMMARY...Areas of freezing rain will continue through eastern
Arkansas, west Tennessee and northwest Mississippi through the early
morning hours before gradually diminishing after 14Z. Rainfall rates
occasionally from 0.05 to 0.1 inch per hour remain likely.

DISCUSSION...Isentropic ascent and low-level theta-e advection above
a cold, stable surface layer associated with the leading edge of
arctic air will maintain areas of scattered showers and
thunderstorms early this morning. RAP analysis indicates MUCAPE from
200-400 J/kg in the convective layer where 6.5-7 C/km mid-level
lapse rates exist. Surface temperatures are generally in the upper
20s to around 30F. The low-level jet will maintain a large melting
layer aloft, likely resulting in freezing rain as the dominant
precipitation type for the duration of the event. Rates will
occasionally reach 0.1 inch per hour within the deeper convective
elements. A weak, progressive mid-level impulse and the accompanying
low-level jet will continue east of this region through the morning.
This should result in a gradual decrease in precipitation after 14Z.

..Dial.. 02/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   36009038 36368872 36338769 35798772 35098917 34039065
            33809262 35069238 36009038
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