[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 111216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111215
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-111345-

Mesoscale Discussion 2019
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

Areas affected...far notheast MS...northern AL and parts of Middle
TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 562...

Valid 111215Z - 111345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 562 continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes remain
possible this morning.

DISCUSSION...Convection has solidified into a mature QLCS from
eastern portions of Middle TN into northwest AL and far northeast MS
this morning. Surface dewpoints range from the mid/upper 60s across
southern portions of the MCD area to near 60 F across northern
portions of WW 562. This is contributing to around 250-750 J/kg
MLCAPE. While instability is weak, deep-layer flow remains quite
strong, supporting the organized line of convection. Low-level flow
has become more veered with time, as is evident in both surface
observations at the progression of VWP data from KHTX. In
conjunction with limited instability, this is precluding stronger
low-level rotation. Nevertheless, severe instances of weakly
rotating cells/mesovortices have been noted over the past 1-2 hours
in regional radar data. A threat for damaging wind gusts and a
couple of tornadoes will remain possible across the remainder of WW
562 the next few hours.

..Leitman.. 12/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   36268508 36218489 35898479 35318512 34618615 33738723
            33288834 33318881 33468899 33798895 34588788 35318703
            35928616 36278545 36268508
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