[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 060901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060901
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-061000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1965
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 AM CST Mon Dec 06 2021

Areas affected...central and northeastern Arkansas into western
Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 550...

Valid 060901Z - 061000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 550
continues.

SUMMARY...Local risk for gusty/damaging winds will continue over the
next 1 to 2 hours.  However, a new WW -- to extend beyond the
scheduled 10Z expiration of WW 550 -- appears unnecessary given
expected/limited risk.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of storms -- exhibiting
anafrontal characteristics -- moving across central and northeastern
Arkansas at this time, representing the tail end of the longer,
frontal band of storms that extends east-northeastward to
southwestern Ohio.  Meanwhile, a second, more loosely organized
pre-frontal convective band continues to evolve near and east of the
Mississippi River into western Tennessee.

Ahead of the convection, a boundary layer featuring dewpoints in the
upper 50s to low 60s is contributing to modest mixed-layer CAPE
(around 500 J/kg per the latest RUC objective analyses).  However, a
slightly stable boundary layer is also hinted at, owing to the
diurnal cooling.  This, combined with front-parallel flow aloft,
continues to limit overall risk for damaging winds.

While some uptick in convective intensity may occur as storms
approach/cross the Tennessee Valley, where the axis of instability
resides, substantial increase in what has proven to be minimal
severe potential is not expected.  Therefore, while we will continue
to monitor convective and environmental evolution, new WW issuance
is not currently anticipated.

..Goss.. 12/06/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   34509376 35319235 36408950 36608732 35818797 34419163
            34509376
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