[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 282029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282029
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-282200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0454
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

Areas affected...Portions of extreme southeast Missouri...extreme
southern Illinois and far western Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118...

Valid 282029Z - 282200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118
continues.

SUMMARY...Some severe threat remains across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 0118 over the next few hours. A couple damaging gusts are
expected be the primary concern.

DISCUSSION...The remnants of an earlier QLCS persist across western
portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 0118 in the form of a loosely
organized multicellular cluster which is about to cross the Missouri
Bootheel. These storms are traversing a relatively diffuse west-east
oriented baroclinic zone, characterized by 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE and
40-50 kts of effective bulk shear as shown by the latest
Mesoanalysis. The 1948Z KPAH VWP also shows modest low-level shear
(i.e. just over 150 m2/s2 0-3km SRH) with a nearly straight
hodograph. As such, the multicellular cluster is expected to
continue across the watch over the next few hours. Nonetheless, the
storms are propagating away from the low-level jet axis, which is
currently established across parts of the Mid South, as well as the
stronger mid-level flow. Questions remain regarding the overall
coverage of damaging winds. Nonetheless, the aforementioned
CAPE/shear parameter space suggests that at least a couple damaging
gusts and perhaps a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 04/28/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   36429076 37109034 37568971 37748838 37798764 37668717
            37308686 36878680 36598719 36418875 36429076
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