[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 082150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082150
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-082315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0334
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 PM CDT Thu Apr 08 2021

Areas affected...Portions of far eastern Tennessee into southeast
Kentucky and extreme western Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 082150Z - 082315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A recent, localized uptick in convective intensity has
been noted, with a few storms showing sustained low-level rotation.
Storms may continue with a large hail/brief tornado threat for a few
more hours, with conditions being monitored for a possible WW
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Supercell structures have recently developed across
portions of eastern Kentucky into northeast Tennessee, with a
history of a possible tornado in Cumberland County, TN one and a
half hours ago. These storms appear to be sustaining themselves
within an environment of well over 200 m2/s2 effective SRH and
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. While surface dewpoints are mainly within the
mid to upper 50s across the region, low to mid-level lapse rates are
currently exceeding 7 C/km based on the latest RAP forecast
soundings. As such, convection is expected to remain organized for
at least a few more hours, and occasional bouts of severe hail or
perhaps a couple of tornadoes cannot be completely ruled out.
Conditions continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 04/08/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36178491 37218452 38118400 38278316 37748241 37158208
            36718211 36388250 36158341 36058412 36178491
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