[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 021735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021735
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-022000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1668
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020

Areas affected...Northern Louisiana...southern Arkansas...northwest
Mississippi and western Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 021735Z - 022000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from northern
Louisiana to southern Arkansas, northwest Mississippi into western
Tennessee this afternoon. A few locally strong to damaging wind
gusts will be possible, but overall threat does not appear to
warrant a WW.

DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon a slow-moving outflow boundary
extends from northwest LA, through southern AR into western TN. The
atmosphere south of this boundary is very moist with dewpoints in
the low to mid 70s F. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but diabatic
warming of the surface layer should boost MLCAPE to around 2000 J/kg
this afternoon. Vertical shear is weak, but a belt of 35-45 kt
southwest winds in the 2-5 km layer along southern periphery of a
shortwave trough is spreading northeastward through this region.
Multicell storm modes are expected, but some of this activity might
become capable of producing a few locally strong gusts as low-level
lapse rates continue to steepen.

..Dial/Grams.. 09/02/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32369338 33579316 34389198 35019117 35558980 36338894
            36398721 35748795 34668928 34119031 33089204 32369338
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