[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 231830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231830
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-232100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1751
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

Areas affected...Portions of southern IN...southeastern
IL...western/central KY...far southwestern OH...western/middle
TN...southeastern MO...and northeastern AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231830Z - 232100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to damaging winds and perhaps some
marginally severe hail may occur through the afternoon. Watch
issuance appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Convection has formed this afternoon both along and
ahead of a cold front extending from the Midwest/OH Valley to the
Mid-South. The stronger mid-level flow associated with an
eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes will remain mostly displaced to the north of these areas,
which may tend to limit deep-layer shear. Even so, around 20-35 kt
of southwesterly low/mid-level winds are present per multiple VWPs,
which should be sufficient for modest storm organization. Multicell
clusters and short line segments are expected to be the primary
storm mode, with convection likely consolidating along the
eastward-moving front with time. Diurnal heating of a moist
low-level airmass ahead of the front is supporting around 1500-2000
J/kg of MLCAPE, even though mid-level lapse rates remain fairly
modest. Some steepening of low-level lapse rates has also occurred,
and convective downdrafts may be capable of producing isolated
strong to damaging winds as storms move eastward through the
afternoon. Occasional instances of marginally severe hail may also
occur with any semi-discrete storms. Current expectations are that
the marginal effective bulk shear will probably limit storm
organization and intensity, with an overall isolated/marginal severe
risk. Accordingly, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 10/23/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...

LAT...LON   35088995 35439040 36449070 36969054 37838940 38388846
            39278723 39308641 39288531 39238402 39178374 39088346
            38748340 37598457 36518574 35298693 35088823 35088995
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