[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 041903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041902
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-042100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0532
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Mon May 04 2020

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern MO...far southwestern
KY...northeastern AR...and western/middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 041902Z - 042100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat should continue to increase this
afternoon into the early evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and
perhaps a couple tornadoes all appear possible. One or more watches
may be needed this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The airmass to the south of a weak surface boundary
continues to slowly destabilize this afternoon across parts of
northeastern AR into western/middle TN. Although low-level flow
currently remains rather modest per the KNQA VWP, mid-level westerly
flow will continue to strengthen over the next few hours with the
approach a low-amplitude shortwave trough from the Plains. It
remains unclear whether the ongoing strong to severe convection in
north-central AR will strengthen further once it encounters greater
instability towards the MS River. If it does, then both a damaging
wind and large hail threat would increase. Regardless, the ongoing
bowing cluster now moving into central MO will probably continue to
pose a damaging wind threat through the remainder of the afternoon
into the early evening as it develops into southern/southeastern MO.
With Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161 scheduled to expire at 20Z, a new
watch or watch extension may be needed within the next hour.
Finally, low-level south-southwesterly flow is forecast to slowly
strengthen through the evening across the Mid-South vicinity. This
may support an increased threat for a couple tornadoes, mainly
across parts of western/middle TN along the weak surface boundary
where low-level flow will be locally backed to east-southeasterly.

..Gleason/Hart.. 05/04/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   36108590 35718557 35208606 35058629 35118764 35329000
            35389094 35929070 36529067 36619099 37089096 37629094
            37248994 36748837 36318665 36108590
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