[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 030510
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030510
KYZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-030715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0138
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2020

Areas affected...Parts of northeast Arkansas...the Missouri
Bootheel...western and middle Tennessee...and adjacent portions of
southern Kentucky

Concerning...Tornado Watch 35...

Valid 030510Z - 030715Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 35 continues.

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development is possible ahead of
the southeastward advancing cold front, across northeastern Arkansas
into western Tennessee through Midnight-2 AM CST, within an
environment conducive to organized severe convection, including
isolated supercells.  Trends are being monitored for the possibility
of an additional severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...The modest surface low currently migrating across
southeastern Missouri into southern Illinois is forecast to continue
into Indiana, northwest through north of Evansville by 08-09Z, with
the trailing cold front advancing eastward/southeastward across the
Missouri Bootheel and much of the remainder of northern Arkansas.
Ahead of the front, and to the south of the ongoing cluster of
storms, which is generally showing signs of weakening while cutting
off moisture return to the north of the western Kentucky/Tennessee
state border, the boundary layer remains relatively moist and
potentially unstable across southeastern Arkansas into western
Tennessee.

Mixed-layer CAPE may still be in excess of 500 J/kg, as mid-level
troughing within a northern branch of split mid-latitude westerlies
begins to amplify southeastward through portions of the Ozark
Plateau.  It appears that this may contribute to increasing forcing
for ascent across northeastern Arkansas into western Tennessee, and
support for at least isolated new thunderstorm development by
06-07Z.

With further strengthening of the 40-45 kt southwesterly 850 mb jet
now traversing the region, the pre-frontal environment may become
increasingly conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development,
including supercells.  Some of this activity may pose a risk for
severe hail, strong surface gusts and perhaps potential for a
tornado or two.

..Kerr.. 03/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35319121 36198983 36948912 37318770 36858602 35758657
            35078801 34709089 35319121
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