[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 281649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281649
NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-281915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1035
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

Areas affected...far southern Kentucky into parts of Middle and
eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 281649Z - 281915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least a few severe wind gusts are possible this
afternoon from far southern Kentucky into parts of Middle/eastern
Tennessee and western North Carolina.

DISCUSSION...An MCS over southern KY and associated midlevel wave
will continue into TN and western NC this afternoon, with possible
rejuvenation along the existing outflow currently near the KY/TN
border.

Visible imagery shows heating south of this system, with an
instability gradient extending east/southeast. Continued heating and
moisture advection from the west/southwest will lead to moderate
instability. New updrafts forming along the advancing outflow surge
may eventually become severe at times, with large PWAT and
steepening low-level lapse rates favoring locally damaging gusts.
The stronger cores may produce marginal hail.

If strengthening/organization occurs today, a watch could be needed
mainly for a wind threat.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 06/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   37088677 37128653 36868594 36708541 36648397 36398277
            35838240 35418245 35158287 35108351 35168428 35458498
            35718550 35898588 36348636 36868698 36938703 37058694
            37088677
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