[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 102224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102223
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-110000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0902
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020

Areas affected...eastern Tennessee...southeast Kentucky...western
Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 102223Z - 110000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are developing just south/east of WW278 with a
couple of weaker supercells in far western Virginia/vicinity. All
severe threats are possible, but given the relatively isolated and
marginal nature of the severe threat, a watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Storms are developing ahead of a surface cold front and
near a pre-frontal trough pushing through the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys towards the Appalachians. A few weaker supercells developed
in far western Virginia/vicinity with some lower-end VROT values
(15-20 knots) where surface winds have backed to the southeast. An
isolated and relatively confined/marginal tornado threat exists in
this area and immediately downstream. Marginally severe hail/wind
are also possible with these storms.

Farther west, storms are beginning to develop ahead of the surface
cold front near a pre-frontal trough in Middle/eastern Tennessee.
These storms may become capable of marginally severe wind/hail with
effective bulk shear of 30-35 knots and MLCAPE of 1000-1500+ J/kg.
Storms are likely to continue moving eastward and may continue over
the Appalachians or with new development along/east across western
North Carolina/Virginia.

..Nauslar/Thompson.. 06/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...

LAT...LON   36858188 36138244 35438351 35078420 34958519 35148527
            35958514 36568491 36938358 37258296 37518229 37378204
            37018197 36858188
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