[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 311722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311721
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-311815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1363
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

Areas affected...Central/Eastern Tennessee and Southern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 311721Z - 311815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging winds possible, watch unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Regional satellite depicts a broad area of boundary
layer cumulus developing in response to strong diurnal heating and
ascent associated with a subtle/remnant MCV. Surface temperatures
have warmed into the mid-80s F amid rich low-level moisture, with
dew point temperatures in the low to mid 70s F, resulting in
progressive destabilization (MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/kg). Consequently,
thunderstorms are beginning to develop over portions of central
Tennessee, and storms are expected to become more numerous through
the afternoon. Strong low-level lapse rates (near 8 C/km) and DCAPE
approaching 800 J/kg should yield a few damaging wind gusts with the
strongest storms.

Despite strong instability, deep layer shear remains weak over the
region and this should limit the overall severe threat. Perhaps some
local enhancement of the flow and uptick in storm severity is
possible in association with the MCV. Thus convective trends will
continue to be monitored, but at the present time a watch is not
expected.

..Karstens/Bunting.. 07/31/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...

LAT...LON   35028689 35718754 36448744 37148675 37368495 36838355
            35638344 35108431 34928548 35028689
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