[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 201658
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201657
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-201900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1288
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

Areas affected...southern Appalachian range

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 201657Z - 201900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected
by mid afternoon, and will pose a risk for sporadic damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows a broad region
of deepening cumulus from northern GA northward into southern WV and
southwest VA. A few attempts at convective initiation have been
noted, but lingering inhibition has limited convective activity so
far. Thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely over
the next 1-2 hours as temperatures continue to climb into the low to
mid 90s and parcels begin to reach their convective temperatures.
Orographic ascent should yield a few initially isolated storms
before storm outflows drive more widespread convection. While the
environment over this region will remain moderately unstable (with
upwards of 2000 J/kg by mid afternoon), deep layer shear will remain
weak and favor disorganized storm modes. The overall severe threat
from these storms will be relatively low, but steepening low-level
lapse rates (already noted at 7-8 C/km per RAP mesoanalysis) will
support the potential for damaging winds with any stronger
downbursts. Due to the isolated and transient nature of the threat,
a watch is not expected.

..Moore/Hart.. 07/20/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...
LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34498662 35308686 36358597 37128400 37498187 37278026
            36687934 35757936 35007976 34398059 33998134 34398464
            34498662
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