[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 161726
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161726
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-161930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1241
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

Areas affected...Far Southwest/Southern MO...Northern
AR...Western/Middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 161726Z - 161930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected over the next
few hours. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible.

DISCUSSION...Recent mesoanalysis estimated a strongly unstable air
mass in place from far southwest MO through northern AR and into
western TN. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across
this region as result of two separate initiation mechanisms: 1)
low-level convergence along a weakening cold front arcing from
western TN through northern AR and back into far southwest MO and,
2) outflow from antecedent storms that moved along the eastern KS/OK
border over the past few hours.

Storms are already developing along the front and recent
intensification has been observed within the storms along the
remnant outflow. Given the lack of vertical shear, expectation is
for occasionally strong updrafts capable of strong water-loaded
downdrafts. New storm development is then anticipated along the
outflow of any earlier storms.

..Mosier/Hart.. 07/16/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   37209366 36498976 36568736 35678779 35019221 35939441
            37209366
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