[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 152111
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152111
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-152315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0054
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020

Areas affected...Parts of southern Arkansas...northern
Mississippi...western/middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 152111Z - 152315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Further thunderstorm development and intensification is
possible late this afternoon, with scattered strong storms posing at
least some severe hail and wind risk, particularly during the 4-6 PM
CST time frame.

DISCUSSION...As short wave ridging begins to build across the
southern Plains, a couple of smaller-scale short wave impulses may
be suppressing mid-level heights within broader-scale anticyclonic
flow across the Ozark Plateau and middle/lower Mississippi Valley
region.  In the wake of these features, weak lower/mid tropospheric
warm advection also appears to be contributing to large-scale ascent
across southern Arkansas, near the nose of a plume of modestly warm
and capping elevated mixed-layer area (roughly delineated by the +6
C isotherm at 700 mb).

While not particularly strong, this lift is at least contributing to
attempts at convective development, evident in latest radar and
satellite imagery.  Activity west of Bowling Green KY, southwestward
toward Memphis TN, may be rooted within a relatively moist boundary
layer characterized by CAPE up to around 500 J/kg, ahead of an
initial weak cold front.  Across southern Arkansas, surface dew
points in the upper 60s to near 70f appear to be contributing to
CAPE up to 1000 J/kg.  This is all in the presence of strongly
sheared 40-60 kt westerly deep-layer mean flow.

Given this environment, a period of intensifying thunderstorm
development still seems possible late this afternoon, with isolated
to widely scattered severe storms possible.  This could include both
isolated supercell development and the evolution of a small
organizing cluster of two, which may pose a risk for marginally
severe hail and wind.

..Kerr/Hart.. 01/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34659142 35149027 35448943 35838847 36508751 37078622
            36008654 35048737 34118880 33159219 34009347 34659142
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