[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 111820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111820
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-111945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

Areas affected...Northeast AL...Northwest GA...Southeast TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 111820Z - 111945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind and a few tornadoes will increase
this afternoon. Watch issuance is likely by 19Z.

DISCUSSION...An extensive QLCS has recently intensified across
portions of western AL, with at least one confirmed tornado noted
earlier in Pickens County. Gradually increasing downstream
instability (noted in objective mesoanalysis and recent SWIRLL
soundings) will favor maintenance of this system as it moves into
northeast AL and adjacent portions of northwest GA and southern TN.
Very strong wind profiles will also spread eastward with time, with
1 km AGL flow of 60-70 kt and effective SRH expected to increase
into the 450-650 m2/s2 range. This powerful wind field will continue
to support the potential for relatively widespread damaging wind,
and also embedded circulations capable of producing at least brief
tornadoes. New watch issuance is expected by 19Z to cover these
threats from northeast AL into northwest GA and southern TN.

..Dean/Hart.. 01/11/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35318631 35738554 35708467 35278412 34748407 33928437
            32868481 32638544 32668580 32718623 33148651 34108662
            34558649 35318631
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