[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 111420
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111420
KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-111515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0033
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0820 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

Areas affected...Southern IN...Far southwest OH...Central
KY...Middle/Eastern TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 111420Z - 111515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Long-lived squall line may continue to produce damaging
wind and perhaps a brief tornado as it moves eastward, though
convective intensity may wane with time. Local watch extension
and/or new watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived squall line is moving through portions of
central KY/middle TN at 1415Z. Downstream instability is negligible,
though MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg may continue spread downstream in
conjunction with the line, allowing for maintenance of the squall
line as it moves eastward. Very strong flow fields (70-80 kt at
around 1 km AGL per area soundings and VWPs) will continue to
support the potential for locally damaging wind and perhaps a brief
tornado, despite the presence of slightly stable surface conditions.
Downstream watch issuance is likely soon to cover this threat.

..Dean/Hart.. 01/11/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...

LAT...LON   38778661 39328526 39578435 38028420 36488437 35768482
            35538524 35338605 36118608 37178626 38438668 38778661
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