[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 292023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292022
KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-292215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1633
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

Areas affected...Portions of the MO Bootheel...southern KY...and
western/middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 292022Z - 292215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Occasional strong to locally damaging wind gusts may occur
with ongoing storms. Watch issuance is unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Storms have recently developed across parts of southern
KY and the MO Bootheel along a southward-moving cold front. A rather
moist and unstable airmass is present along/south of this front into
parts of western/middle TN, where MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg has
developed. VWPs from area radars show weak low-level westerly winds
modestly strengthening and veering to northwesterly with height
through mid levels, which is supporting 20-30 kt of effective bulk
shear. Modest storm organization is possible, with mainly multicells
and small clusters moving southward in tandem with the front for at
least the next couple of hours. With modest steepening of low-level
lapse rates ahead of the ongoing convection, isolated instances of
strong to damaging wind gusts may occur through the rest of the
afternoon. Current expectations are for this wind threat to remain
rather isolated, and watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

..Gleason/Grams.. 08/29/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36638980 36958911 37228533 36908480 35698515 35268570
            35498813 36008943 36638980
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
https://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
https://twitter.com/nashwxnet