[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 251933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251932
NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-252100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0476
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020

Areas affected...middle and eastern TN...far northern GA...far
western NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 251932Z - 252100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Convection is expected to gradually intensify this
afternoon.  A few low-topped supercells could develop and pose a
hail/tornado risk.  Convective trends will be monitored over the
next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level low slowly
migrating eastward near the OH/MS River confluence.  Visible
satellite imagery shows low clouds eroding across southern portions
of middle and eastern TN in wake of earlier showers.  Surface
temperatures have warmed into the middle to upper 60s F near
Chattanooga in response to stronger surface heating.  Surface
dewpoints remain relatively marginal and range in the lower to
middle 50s F.

A couple of weak convective bands are forming across middle TN.  It
remains uncertain whether developing updrafts will become
surface-based and intensify into organized/sustained storms.
However, model guidance indicates sufficient buoyancy may develop
over the next few hours for at least an isolated risk for strong to
severe thunderstorms.  If a few stronger updrafts manage to develop,
forecast hodographs favor storm organization, including the
possibility for a few of these updrafts to acquire supercell
characteristics.  Therefore it appears an increasing risk for
strong-storm activity will materialize at least on an isolated basis
later this afternoon.  Hail and possibly a tornado may accompany the
stronger storms.

..Smith/Thompson.. 04/25/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35478674 35948685 36428654 36668596 36018355 35658346
            35118357 34718400 34698452 35478674
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