[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 021723
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021722
KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-021915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0500
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Thu May 02 2019

Areas affected...extreme southeast Indiana...far southwest
Ohio...central into eastern Kentucky...northern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 021722Z - 021915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and a few instances of marginally
severe hail are possible with renewed convection associated with
outflow from earlier storms. Convective trends with this new
development are being monitored for a possible WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Convective outflow continues to propagate eastward
across portions of the Ohio Valley in association with a weakening
cold pool from the remnants of a previous MCS. Though weak
deep-layer and low-level shear has allowed the aforementioned cold
pool to outrun earlier convective cells, this outflow has recently
propagated into a low-level thermodynamic environment characterized
by deep low-level moisture and up to 8 C/km 0-3km lapse rates,
yielding well over 100 J/kg 0-3km CAPE (given ample insolation in
place). As such, the initiation of multicellular convection has been
underway for the last 2 hours.

Continued solar radiation (resulting in further increasing
buoyancy), combined with increasing synoptic scale deep-layer ascent
associated with an approaching vorticity maximum upstream in the
Missouri Valley, will promote further development of additional
convective cells/linear clusters through the early to mid-afternoon
hours. The weak shear environment suggests that individual
cells/clusters will likely not become particularly
organized/long-lived, though ample low-level buoyancy may support
the development of vigorous updrafts and in turn, water-loaded
downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. A few instances of
marginally severe hail also cannot be ruled out.

Convective trends are being monitored in order to ascertain how many
intense updrafts/line segments, supportive of severe wind gusts, may
develop and organize.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/02/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36488480 36528623 36698675 36928666 37508604 38468536
            39108518 39358507 39378459 39328382 39228327 39088324
            38698289 38008269 37228303 36488480
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