[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141647
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-141815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0208
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Areas affected...Northeast Mississippi...Northwest Alabama...and
southern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 141647Z - 141815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storms is expected through the
afternoon. A tornado watch will likely be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...16Z surface analysis shows much of northeast
Mississippi and northwest Alabama has warmed 4 to 5 F in the last
hour despite some cloud cover across the area. This has led to an
increase in low-level instability to around 750 to 1000 J/kg of
MLCAPE. Warming is expected to continue with low-level moisture
advection which will lead to moderate instability by mid-afternoon.
The recent heating in this area has provided enough instability for
a reinvigoration of lightning from some of the convection in
northern Mississippi. Therefore, expect more widespread storm
coverage within the next hour or two as surface destabilization
continues to increase.

Deep-layer shear in this area is very favorable for supercell and
low-level mesocyclone development with deep layer effective shear
around 55 to 60 knots and 0-1 SRH around 350 m2/s2 per GWX VWP.
Therefore, these storms will pose a tornado threat with the
potential for strong tornadoes, especially as supercells mature into
northwest Alabama.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 03/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32928996 33888976 35158937 35688895 36318823 36518745
            36348646 35988601 35128602 34658623 33218707 32438812
            32178902 32348970 32928996
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