[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 232041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232041
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-232145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Areas affected...southeast Oklahoma...much of Arkansas...southeast
Missouri...southern Illinois...western Kentucky...western
Tennessee...and northwest Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 433...

Valid 232041Z - 232145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 433
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues across the remaining
valid portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435.  An areal extension
may needed in the short term across portions of southern Arkansas
and perhaps southern Illinois and western Kentucky.

DISCUSSION...Severe thunderstorms were in progress along an
east/southeastward-moving linear convective system at 2035Z, with
several reports of damaging winds received.  The most intense
portion of the line extended from southeast MO across central
Arkansas, in an environment characterized by strong instability
(MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) and 30-40 kts of southwesterly
deep-layer shear. With a well-developed cold pool, the line should
continue moving east/southeast this afternoon with a continued risk
for damaging winds, with transient low-level circulations possible
along the leading edge entering far southern Illinois and western
Kentucky.

A local watch extension in area may be needed in the short term
across portions of southern Arkansas, where current line motion
would take the convective line to the southern edge of the watch by
around 2130Z. In addition, any northward development of the line
across southeast MO would necessitate a local areal extension across
southern IL and western KY north of the current watch boundary.

..Bunting.. 06/23/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33759108 33359298 33189372 33549482 34119479 34649414
            35049254 35859118 36629024 37498997 37548820 37448729
            36818729 36658816 35788907 34569002 33759108
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