[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 220058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220058
NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-220230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

Areas affected...portions of central and southeast
KY...TN...northern AL/MS and eastern AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418...419...

Valid 220058Z - 220230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418, 419
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts will continue across portions of
southeast KY into western, middle and parts of eastern TN this
evening. The threat should increase across parts of northern MS/AL
later tonight as the bow echo develops south/southeast over the next
several hours.

DISCUSSION...Strong to severe gusts continue with the bow echo
shifting southeast from south-central KY into middle and western TN
and adjacent portions of eastern AR. The most recent measured severe
gust was from Fort Campbell KY where a peak gust of 55 kt was
measure in the last hour or so. Additional strong gusts from 40-50
kt have been noted across western TN and northeast AR with an
accompaniment of additional damaging wind mPING reports scattered
around the region.

Western portions of the line across eastern AR into western TN have
tended to weaken as expected. 00z RAOB from LZK shows strong capping
while the BNA RAOB is only weakly capped with impressive midlevel
lapse rates and vertical shear profile. Indeed, portions of the line
approaching middle TN have increased recently and may be taking
advantage of this better quality thermodynamic/kinematic parameter
space. Furthermore, VWP data from KHPX and KPAH have indicated a
rear-inflow jet of 60-70 kt. Thus, it seems likely the portion of
the bow from middle TN into southeast KY will continue to progress
southeast along the instability gradient into parts of eastern TN
and northern AL over the next several hours. While tornado threat
appears low compared to damaging wind threat, 0-3 km shear of 32 kt
with a sharply curved low level hodograph indicates at least some
low-end threat for mesovortex tornadoes.

Western portions of the line should gradually weaken as capping
increases and deep layer shear weakens with southward extent per LZK
and JAN 00z RAOB. Further east, instability decreases rather
abruptly across eastern KY and far northeast TN. A marginal threat
for gusty winds may persist outside of current severe thunderstorm
watches, but a downstream watch is not expected further east at this
time given a rapid decrease in supportive environmental conditions.

..Leitman.. 06/22/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...
PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   36638710 37008700 37078674 37218662 37298637 37358607
            37498590 37628580 37788563 37988550 37978516 37888514
            37828528 37728536 37658532 37628502 37538504 37568488
            37428485 37348471 37008427 36558399 36388393 36278402
            36178394 36168374 35968365 35848382 35698368 35568366
            35518383 35448393 35408400 35248402 35268423 35208428
            34968432 34978558 34548553 34358566 34198581 34178617
            34098627 34278646 34188656 34038670 33888696 33888706
            33998714 34278712 34348818 34478817 34468854 34528856
            34518875 34598873 34568925 34488926 34538962 34549019
            34499019 34499030 34409028 34519055 34629061 34639102
            34749109 34899113 34909117 34999113 34999106 35869103
            35878911 36008816 36638710
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
http://twitter.com/nashwxnet