[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 202017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202017
VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-202145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1162
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

Areas affected...middle through northeast Tennessee and southeast
Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 202017Z - 202145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may produce a few instances of hail and strong wind
gusts from middle through northeast Tennessee into southeast
Kentucky next couple hours. The duration and overall magnitude of
the threat is not expected to be sufficient for a WW.

DISCUSSION...Storms are developing from southeast KY into northern
middle TN along and east of a cold front and in association with
ascent attending a progressive shortwave trough. Extensive morning
clouds were slow to erode and have limited boundary layer recovery
with temperatures still in the 70s F in most areas, limiting MLCAPE
to generally below 1000 J/kg. A mid-level jet situated within the
base of the trough is resulting in 35-40 kt effective bulk shear
across TN, and some marginal supercell structures with modest
mid-level updraft rotation have been observed. Activity will
continue east southeast next couple hours, posing some risk for
locally strong wind gusts and hail. However, storms should begin a
weakening trend by 22Z as they encounter a more stable boundary
layer toward the southern Appalachians.

..Dial/Hart.. 06/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   35998654 37168445 37018312 36258283 35568458 35488605
            35998654
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