[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 300006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300005
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-300130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2241
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019

Areas affected...portions of far eastern MS...northern and central
AL...southern middle TN and far northwest GA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 708...

Valid 300005Z - 300130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 708 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across extreme eastern MS into
parts of western AL. A new watch or local extensions may be needed
for portions of the region this evening.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms extends from far northwest AL
south/southwest along the MS/AL border as of 2345z this evening.  A
bowing segment at the north end of the line could be producing
damaging gusts as it tracks northeast toward southern middle TN over
the next hour. Further south, several embedded cells have shows
sporadic moderate low level rotation in the vicinity of Kemper and
Noxubee counties in MS. Objective analysis indicates MLCAPE values
between 250-500 J/kg are in place ahead of the line across
northern/central AL and spread northward into parts of
south-central/southeast TN and northwest GA. Regional VWPs continue
to show low level hodographs favorable for rotation, and damaging
gusts and a couple of tornadoes remain possible.

With storms tracking to the northeast at around 35-50 kt, the line
should approach the northern edge of WW 708 in the next hour near
the AL/TN border, and in the next 1-2 hours further east across
central AL. It is unclear how far north and east the severe threat
may continue given quickly diminishing instability and increasing
inhibition with loss of daytime heating. Nevertheless, given
strength of vertical shear and rather rich boundary layer dewpoints,
storms could continue to pose a threat at least briefly across parts
of southern middle/southeast TN into far northwest GA and portions
of central/northeastern AL. As such, WW 708 may need to be locally
extended, or a new downstream watch may be needed depending on
convective trends.

..Leitman.. 12/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32428944 33358874 34378825 34958786 35688672 35858601
            35818552 35628505 35198481 34788491 33808580 32788683
            32278735 32088771 31888849 31908898 32018923 32208942
            32428944
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
http://twitter.com/nashwxnet