[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 071813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071813
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-072015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0279
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

Areas affected...Portions of far northeastern LA into
central/northern MS...northwestern/west-central AL...and southern
middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 071813Z - 072015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms along a boundary may pose an isolated severe
hail/wind risk this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Within a weak low-level warm air advection regime,
several thunderstorms have recently intensified along a convectively
reinforced boundary across parts of central/northern MS into
southern middle TN. The airmass along and south of this boundary
will remain moderately unstable through the afternoon, with the 18Z
mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE of 1000-2500 J/kg. This developing
convection is well ahead of a southern-stream shortwave trough and
related line of thunderstorms across coastal southeast TX. Still,
modestly strengthening west-southwesterly winds in the mid/upper
levels should support 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. This shear
combined with steep mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z sounding
from Jackson, MS suggest that isolated large hail will be possible
through the afternoon with convection that can remain at least
semi-discrete. Strong to locally damaging winds may also be a
concern if thunderstorms develop into one or more small line
segments as they move east-northeastward. Radar trends will be
monitored for any further increase in convective coverage/intensity
which may necessitate watch issuance.

..Gleason/Hart.. 04/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32289038 32239145 32349186 32759188 33359140 33719088
            34858942 35398834 35588750 35518653 35028649 33008817
            32418964 32289038
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