[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 092234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092233
WVZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-100100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1441
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 PM CDT Sun Sep 09 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Kentucky/Tennessee...western Virginia...and
southern West Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 092233Z - 100100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms continue to develop and move northeast ahead of a
cold front in a moist/unstable environment. Strong wind gusts are
the main threat.

DISCUSSION...Several new storms/storm clusters have developed over
the past hour and have intensified over the Appalachians stretching
from southern West Virginia southward through eastern Tennessee.
These storms have developed south/east of cloud cover associated
with the approaching cold front. There is sufficient buoyancy to
support strong storms (MLCAPE 500-1200 J/kg), but shear remains
marginal especially at low levels (effective bulk shear of 25-35
knots). These storms should continue into the evening, but the
overall storm environment will deteriorate after sunset. Given the
general amorphic and transient nature of the updrafts, strong wind
gusts are possible as updrafts collapse or if any of the storms can
organize upscale into a quasi-coherent cluster. A watch issuance is
unlikely given the limited severe threat posed.

..Nauslar/Edwards.. 09/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...OHX...

LAT...LON   36228500 36638482 37328397 37768303 38298207 38298169
            38248125 37678105 37278135 36748170 36188219 35798321
            35668395 35688464 35948518 36228500
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