[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 010005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010004
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-010200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1605
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

Areas affected...Portions of western Tennessee/vicintiy

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 010004Z - 010200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storm intensification/development is possible across
portions of western Tennessee/vicinity in the next two hours. A
brief tornado is possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms are developing/intensifying ahead of the cold
front within the warm sector across portions of northern
Mississippi/western Tennessee. Low-level shear and SRH will locally
increase as surface winds back to the southeast across the area per
recent observations. Better hodograph curvature and storm motion
demonstrate potential for brief/weak tornado development with the
strongest storm(s). Buoyancy is marginal in the area (MLCAPE of
300-600 J/kg), but there is sufficient shear (effective bulk shear
of 40-50 knots) for strong/severe storm development. Storms may
become elevated as the boundary-layer cools, which would decrease
tornado potential. Given the current observations/recent trends, a
watch is unlikely in the near term.

..Nauslar/Guyer.. 11/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   34888870 34668914 34648948 34858981 35119011 35349020
            35689009 35908991 36638900 36718865 36718821 36558771
            36328758 36088741 35728738 35428766 35128816 34888870
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