[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 191906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191906
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-192030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Areas affected...Northeast MS...Northern AL...Southern TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 191906Z - 192030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado watch will be issued by 21z across portions of the
Mid-South. A few strong tornadoes are possible in addition to large
hail.

DISCUSSION...Leading edge of mid-level drying/cooling is progressing
across the MS Delta region at roughly 35kt. Over the next few hours
lapse rates should adjust across western TN/northeast MS and deep
convection is expected to expand in response to this feature.
Conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for strong supercell
development as boundary-layer moisture is advancing into northern
MS/AL with mid 60s surface dew points now evident at TUP into
Winston county AL.

Early-day thunderstorm cluster that spread across northern MS is now
into northern AL and this convection may impede deeper moisture
surge into the Middle TN region. However, a well-defined and
increasingly buoyant east-west boundary draped across northern MS/AL
should provide a focus for potentially tornadic supercells. Shear
profiles are becoming quite strong across this region and it appears
discrete storms will evolve over the next few hours in response to
approaching short-wave trough. Environmental parameters appear
supportive of potentially long-track tornadoes and this will be
addressed within the next few hours with a tornado watch.

..Darrow/Grams.. 03/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   35488846 35488627 34748559 33418601 33268882 34398931
            35488846
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