[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 191452
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191452
GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-191615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0143
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0952 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Areas affected...north-central and northern AL...northwest GA...far
southern middle TN

Concerning...Outlook upgrade

Valid 191452Z - 191615Z

SUMMARY...An upgrade to a Moderate Risk categorical outlook (driven
by a 15% significant tornado risk) is planned for the 1630Z outlook.

DISCUSSION...It appears increasingly probable the risk for several
tornadic supercells will traverse across northern portions of AL
late this afternoon and through the early evening.  Thunderstorm
activity will be largely void across a large part of this area
(north-central AL) prior to peak heating and a moderately unstable
airmass is expected to develop by mid afternoon.  The arrival of a
speed max in the mid-levels will correspondingly lead to a marked
strengthening in low-level flow and increasing hodograph size, which
will be more favorable for supercells and low-level mesocyclones.
Given these factors, confidence has increased such that a 15%
significant tornado risk and the potential for longer lived
supercells and damaging tornadoes will focus across north-central
and northern AL, far southern middle TN beginning during the late
afternoon/early evening, then moving east into northeast AL and far
northwest GA later this evening.

..Smith.. 03/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   34918774 35178682 34918515 34168497 33778527 33558610
            33558702 33868795 34368820 34918774
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