[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 170446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170446
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-170545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0124
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Areas affected...Portions of western Kentucky and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 170446Z - 170545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A localized threat for gusty winds and marginally severe
hail may exist for a few more hours tonight.

DISCUSSION...Near a warm front extending from central Missouri
southeastward to the Tennessee Valley, a small bowing segment has
organized late this evening. Although these cells are accelerating
towards cold/stable boundary-layer air, a slow northward advance of
the warm front may continue to yield a narrow corridor for eastward
maintenance of these cells across Kentucky for a few more hours.
Furthermore, strong forced ascent along the leading edge of the line
may maintain surface-based updrafts, fueling a localized threat for
strong, gusty winds (especially considering the shallow nature of
the surface stable layer).

A small threat for marginally severe hail may continue as well near
the intersection of the line with the warm front, as backed
low-level flow enables more efficient updraft rotation. Of note,
low-level reflectivity is likely being enhanced by a large number of
wet, near-severe hailstones, suggested by excessive values of KDP
(upwards of 10 deg/km), and this agrees with recent reports of hail
sizes near one inch or less. Regardless, the threat of hail and wind
should diminish later tonight, as cells outpace any substantive
buoyancy.

..Picca/Thompson.. 03/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36688655 36448750 36338936 36419003 36748999 37278934
            37338797 37288673 36958644 36688655
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