[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 260108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260108
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-260315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0882
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0808 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

Areas affected...Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 260108Z - 260315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are developing along/near surface front in the Mid
Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys. Storm development should
continue and may build upscale into a QLCS. Severe hail/wind are
possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms have developed over the past few hours across
portions of eastern Missouri. Storms have struggled to maintain
strength, but the buoyant environment (MLCAPE 2000+ J/kg) has
allowed other updrafts to mature along outflow boundaries and the
surface front. Via mesoanalysis, effective bulk shear appears
marginal (30-35 knots), and the more organized/stronger storms have
developed/persisted near the CAPE/shear gradient in the vicinity of
the surface front.

Storms should continue to develop this evening and may build upscale
into a QLCS. Latest guidance offers various solutions of how
organized the convection becomes this evening/overnight. There is
the potential for convection to form a MCS with a strong cold pool
that would increase the risk for severe wind as it moves southeast.
Severe hail/wind are possible especially if the convection organizes
into a bowing MCS. Watch potential is conditional on evidence of
substantial upscale organization.

..Nauslar/Cook/Edwards.. 06/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   39039041 38848914 38608823 38218742 37788688 37258726
            36688770 36468828 36648920 37219004 37669052 37969096
            38339133 39039041
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