[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 031925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031924
VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-KYZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-032030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0634
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Sun Jun 03 2018

Areas affected...eastern Kentucky...eastern Tennessee...western
North Carolina...northern Georgia...much of Alabama...and a small
part of Upstate South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 031924Z - 032030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms developing in the discussion area are in a strongly
unstable environment and may produce damaging wind gusts and hail.
Convective trends will be monitored for a WW issuance, although the
probability of a WW is low.

DISCUSSION...Scattered convection continues to gradually deepen
along a southeastward-moving cold front and in localized areas
across northern Georgia and western North Carolina.  These storms
are in a strongly unstable and weakly capped airmass, with SBCAPE
values ranging from 2000-3000 J/kg in Kentucky/Tennessee to around
4000+ J/kg in eastern Alabama.  As storms continue to deepen and
realize the instability, damaging downbursts and hail will become
more likely on at least an isolated basis.  Weak low-level shear and
20-30 kt northwesterly mid-level flow will foster outflow-dominant
storms, and upscale growth into clusters and small linear segments
are possible through early evening.

Convective trends will be monitored for areas of heightened severe
risk focused near any localized areas of greater convective coverage
and/or linear organization.  Latest HRRR and Nam4 guidance suggest
that this threat may be highest across eastern Alabama and western
Georgia.  If this scenario can materialize, a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch may be needed, although the probabilities of this occurring
are currently around 20%.

..Cook/Guyer.. 06/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   37258358 37638312 37748252 37508214 36958197 36338196
            35558217 34828242 33818299 33188373 32938391 32498462
            32258523 32098640 32048742 32258840 32648849 32928826
            33348764 33838687 34258651 35098595 35768529 37258358
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