[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 010741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010741
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-010815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0605
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 AM CDT Fri Jun 01 2018

Areas affected...parts of western and middle TN...northeast MS...and
northern AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 010741Z - 010815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated gusts 40-45 mph and localized gusts around 50 mph
may continue with a squall line as it moves southeast through
west-central TN into northern portions of MS/AL.  Pockets of minor
tree damage are possible with this activity but the
coverage/intensity will likely not necessitate a severe thunderstorm
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a squall line from near Memphis
east-northeastward to Nashville.  Surface conditions ahead of the
line are characterized by mid 70s degrees F temperatures and lower
70s dewpoints.  Modifying the 00Z BNA RAOB for these conditions
yields around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE (probably higher than objective
analysis would indicate).  Precipitable water per the earlier
sounding is around 2 inches and strongly suggests water-loading
processes to be one of the primary mechanisms for stronger gusts.
However, given the weak low-level lapse rates implied by the
modified sounding, it seems only localized stronger gusts to around
50 mph can be generally expected.  Nonetheless, pockets of tree
damage may occur, especially since soils have been pre-conditionally
saturated by the remnants of Alberto.

..Smith/Edwards.. 06/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35158960 36118698 35648591 34788602 34478907 34688949
            35158960
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