[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 242329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242329
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-250100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0094
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Areas affected...parts of southern/eastern Arkansas and adjacent
portions of the lower Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Tornado Watch 4...

Valid 242329Z - 250100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 4 continues.

SUMMARY...At least some severe weather potential will continue
across the lower Mississippi Valley, to the south of Tornado Watch
5, this evening.  However, this potential appears to be in the
process of becoming more marginal, with coverage uncertain.  It is
not yet clear that another watch will be issued as Tornado Watch 4
expires at 00Z.

DISCUSSION...The 50-70 kt southerly 850 mb jet across eastern
Arkansas into southeastern Missouri is forecast to veer to
southwesterly while shifting east of the Mississippi River during
the next few hours.  This is expected to occur as stronger mid/upper
forcing for ascent generally pivots across and north/east of the
middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.  As this occurs, severe
weather potential to the south of Tornado Watch 5 seems likely to
become increasingly marginal due to increasing mid-level
inhibition(supported by current trends).  However, it may not be
completely negligible across and just east of the lower Mississippi
valley through at least the 00-03Z time frame, in the presence of a
boundary layer characterized by fairly high moisture content and at
least weak conditional instability.  Deep layer and low-level wind
fields/shear may remain strong enough to maintain an isolated
tornado/damaging wind risk.

..Kerr.. 02/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...
SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   33009268 33869189 34519153 35119006 35458789 34438723
            32738807 31368955 30739103 30589215 31149535 33009268
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