[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 311955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311954
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-312200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1749
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CST Mon Dec 31 2018

Areas affected...Middle Tennessee...northwest and west central
Alabama...and into eastern Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 449...

Valid 311954Z - 312200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 449 continues.

SUMMARY...Local severe risk -- including the potential for a brief
tornado or two -- continues across the watch area.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of storms moving across
the Mid South and central Gulf Coast states, with the stronger/more
organized portion of the band to the north, and increasingly
disorganized/weaker storms farther south.

This stronger portion of the band, crossing Middle Tennessee, far
northwest Alabama, and northeast Mississippi, is a fairly organized
QLCS, though it remains low-topped to the degree that little
lightning is being observed.

Still, with strong shear in place across the region (flow increasing
with height to in excess of 50kt between .5km and 1km AGL, and to
near 100kt at mid levels), risk for locally damaging wind gusts, and
a brief tornado or two, will continue as convection continues moving
quickly eastward across the area.

As storms advance farther eastward, toward eastern Tennessee and
northeast Alabama over the next couple of hours, indications of even
more limited instability with eastward extent suggest that an
additional watch, to the east of Tornado Watch 449 -- may not be
required.

..Goss.. 12/31/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   36598595 35478612 33698712 32008847 31698987 32428976
            34038846 36608741 36598595
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