[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 012329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012328
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-020030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1688
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CST Sat Dec 01 2018

Areas affected...Northern AL...Middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 012328Z - 020030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/locally severe thunderstorms will be
possible into early evening. The duration and coverage of the threat
appears too limited for watch issuance at this time.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms has recently developed
across northern MS, perhaps in response to a subtle wave moving
around the periphery of the occluding low over the central Plains.
This broken line is now moving into northern AL and middle TN. While
weak-to-moderate instability and very favorable wind profiles are
otherwise supportive for a severe threat, very dry midlevel
conditions (as noted on forecast soundings and GOES WV imagery)
appear to be limiting updraft intensity thus far, and it remains
uncertain if any of the storms will intensify to severe limits.
However, a conditional risk of damaging wind/marginally severe hail
and perhaps a brief tornado will exist with any cell that shows an
uptick in intensity, particularly near the surface warm front across
northern AL. Further north into middle TN, storms may tend to be
somewhat elevated, with a localized hail/wind risk cannot be ruled
out with the strongest cells.

At this time, the coverage and duration of the threat appears too
limited for watch issuance.

..Dean/Goss.. 12/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   33548810 33998814 34628802 35418826 36078787 36598760
            36388623 35018616 33658708 33488766 33548810
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