[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 071722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071722
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-071915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1256
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Tue Aug 07 2018

Areas affected...Southern Missouri and northern Arkansas eastward
through western Kentucky...northwestern Tennessee...and southern
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 071722Z - 071915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind threat should increase through
the afternoon - especially if storms can congeal into a
forward-propagating complex.  A WW issuance is not anticipated at
this time, although trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Storms continue to increase near a couple of outflow
boundaries - one extending westward from a decaying convective
complex over southern Illinois to near Texas County, Missouri and
another from near Douglas/Ozark counties southwestward into
northwestern Arkansas.  Ongoing convective cores are reinforcing the
cooler air on northern and western sides of these boundaries and
supporting forward propagation of the storms into a moderately to
strongly unstable and weakly capped downstream airmass (i.e.,
2500-4000 J/kg MUCAPE - highest across northeastern Arkansas).  Deep
shear profiles are meager - hence, any damaging wind potential will
depend on storm-scale interactions and any potential for ongoing
storms to form a loosely organized, forward-propagating convective
cluster as they trek eastward across the discussion area.
Convective trends will be monitored through the afternoon for a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance, although one appears unlikely at
this time.

..Cook/Thompson.. 08/07/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   37479241 37809123 37998983 37978848 37548745 36668748
            35898802 35578948 35669118 35999269 36489311 36739315
            37479241
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