[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Tue Apr 3 20:17:41 CDT 2018

ACUS11 KWNS 040117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040116
WVZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-040245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0816 PM CDT Tue Apr 03 2018

Areas affected...Parts of the Cumberland/Allegheny Plateau region

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 30...32...

Valid 040116Z - 040245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 30, 32
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will overspread the region through 11-2 AM
EDT, accompanied by at least some risk for potentially damaging wind
gusts.  Another severe weather watch probably will be issued.

DISCUSSION...Some increase in low-level moisture (surface dew points
perhaps rising from the lower through mid 50s) is possible on
south/southwesterly low-level flow ahead of pre-frontal thunderstorm
activity approaching the region.  This should contribute to the
maintenance of weak instability, despite the onset of diurnal
boundary layer cooling.  This may be enough to maintain the vigorous
ongoing storms which appear likely to begin spreading east of
tornado watch 31 and severe thunderstorm watch 32 during the 02-03Z
time frame.  In the presence of strong deep layer mean flow,
including 50+ kt at 850 mb, storms will continue to pose a risk for
at least localized damaging wind gusts until they weaken near the
western slopes of the Appalachians later tonight.

..Kerr.. 04/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...
HUN...

LAT...LON   38828244 38498080 37358083 35638396 34878578 35498672
            37188453 38448315 38828244
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