[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 051937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051936
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-052030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1622
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017

Areas affected...Northern Mississippi eastward into the western
Carolinas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 051936Z - 052030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging wind gusts are possible with storms that
migrate through the discussion area into the evening.  A WW is not
anticipated for this activity.

DISCUSSION...A band of convection has increased very near and just
behind a surface front analyzed from near Tupelo, MS to Chattanooga,
TN and northeast along the TN/NC border region.  Another separate
pre-frontal band of storms has developed farther south from near
Gadsden, AL to north of Rome, GA.  These storms are in an
environment characterized by moderate to strong instability (MUCAPE
around 3000-3500 J/kg), and modest deep shear (around 20-25 knots)
marginally supportive of storm organization.  Storms should continue
to increase in coverage and intensity throughout the afternoon, with
some potential for isolated damaging wind gusts as storms
migrate/propagate southeastward along and ahead of the front -
especially given the magnitude of instability.  The isolated nature
of this damaging wind gust threat will likely preclude the need for
a WW issuance.

..Cook.. 09/05/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...
HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33949065 34308905 35328594 36218288 36528139 36458072
            36348052 35328038 34138118 33018476 32868814 32878937
            33109027 33669089 33949065
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