[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 271112
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271112
ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-271315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0859
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Areas affected...southeast Missouri...northeast Arkansas...far
southwest Kentucky...western Tennessee...and northern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274...

Valid 271112Z - 271315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong/locally severe storms continue moving across far
southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas toward the Mississippi
River.  large hail and locally damaging winds remain possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a cluster of strong/severe
storms crossing the northeast AR and adjacent far southeast MO areas
at this time, through an amply unstable/sufficiently sheared
environment with respect to support for organized convection.
Storms remain coincident with an upper-level disturbance evident
within water vapor imagery, but a gradually weakening low-level jet
is noted, which -- combined with weaker downstream instability with
eastward extent across western Missouri -- suggests that severe risk
may gradually diminish beginning in the next couple of hours.
However, should storms manage to survive until mid-morning, the
onset of diurnal destabilization could eventually allow
re-intensification of the MCS to occur -- a scenario hinted at by
the latest HRRR runs.  In the mean time, local risk for damaging
winds and large hail continues.

..Goss.. 05/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35369105 35749121 36649018 36708958 36408801 35178783
            34448804 34718968 35369105
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