[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121806
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-122030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0707
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017

Areas affected...Northeast Alabama...Northern Georgia...Western
South Carolina...Western North Carolina...Western Virginia...Western
Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 121806Z - 122030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for wind damage and hail should
continue across northeastern Alabama and southeast Tennessee. The
threat should develop across parts of the southern Appalachian
mountains over the next couple of hours. Weather watch issuance is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1008 mb mesolow
over eastern Tennessee with a cold front moving southward across
northern Tennessee. A narrow corridor of low-level moisture is
present just to the west of the Appalachian crest where MLCAPE is
estimated to be from 500 to 750 J/kg. Further southwest across
northwest Georgia, MLCAPE is estimated to be around 1000 J/kg.
Strong thunderstorms are ongoing along the instability axis across
far northeast Tennessee and in far northwest Georgia and northeast
Alabama. In addition, the WSR-88D VWPs at Knoxville, Tennessee and
near Huntsville, Alabama show 0-6 km shear values in the 25 to 35 kt
range. Deep-layer shear is stronger to the east of the Appalachian
crest where surface winds are backed to the east. As instability
increases and low-level lapse rates steepen further this afternoon,
the magnitude of deep-layer shear should support a marginal wind
damage and hail threat with the stronger multicells.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   33368356 34898170 35538143 36018174 36118305 35808467
            35338589 34258701 33318661 33108503 33368356
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