[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 302241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302240
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-302345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0383
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the Ohio Valley southward to
western/middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 103...

Valid 302240Z - 302345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 103
continues.

SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms will push eastward out of
the current severe thunderstorm watch this evening. While a marginal
damaging-wind risk may persist downstream of this watch,
thunderstorms should remain disorganized enough to preclude new
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Strong to briefly severe thunderstorms across portions
of the Ohio Valley southward to western Tennessee are progressing
eastward early this evening. While relatively strong southerly
uni-directional flow aloft and mixed low-level profiles may favor an
isolated damaging-wind threat through mid evening, convection should
remain relatively disorganized. This expectation is based on the
observation of veered near-surface flow noted in regional
observations and VWP data ahead of the line, as well as the narrow
buoyancy observed in the 20Z OHX sounding and various forecast
soundings. Additionally, efficient diabatic cooling will reduce
surface-based buoyancy through this evening. In turn, updraft
accelerations should suffer from weak low-level convergence and
considerable dry-air entrainment, likely precluding greater
convective organization and the need for a downstream watch.

..Picca.. 03/30/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36718825 38438760 38568701 38698587 38588539 36928554
            35698634 35448798 35778856 36718825
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