[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 272040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272039
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-272245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0347
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas...Northern Mississippi...Western
Tennessee...Western Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 89...

Valid 272039Z - 272245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 89
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat across WW 89 is expected to continue
into the early evening. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be
the primary threats with the stronger thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1008 mb surface low
over far southwestern Kentucky with a cold front extending
southwestward across northeast Arkansas. Thunderstorms have
developed along the front and further east along a corridor of
low-level moisture extending north northeastward across western
Tennessee. Surface dewpoints in western Tennessee are in the lower
60s F which is contributing to moderate instability with MLCAPE
values estimated in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition to the
instability, strong large-scale ascent will provide support for
continued convective development across WW 89 late this afternoon
into this evening. Moderate deep-layer shear profiles and steep
lapse rates will be favorable for storm rotation and isolated large
hail within the strongest cores. Wind damage will also be possible
with short line segments along the front and further to the east
across the warm sector. Cells may eventually consolidate into a
cluster, moving eastward across west-central Tennessee and perhaps
far northeastern Mississippi.

..Broyles.. 03/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33738904 33718947 33878958 33948988 33729006 33699031
            33799031 33819044 33979043 33989060 34129064 34179102
            34329109 34369101 34479101 34639106 34819113 34979119
            35039106 35889103 35959089 35998988 36408994 36398959
            36618919 36988911 37188904 37248888 37078851 37138840
            37268849 37378849 37518801 37488788 37618772 37688741
            37548708 37408717 37328703 37348694 37198688 37088695
            37058706 36618704 36598712 36418715 36358726 36188719
            35758718 35648730 35558733 35528723 35418732 35428751
            35158760 35038760 35018821 34868812 33738827 33658857
            33708872 33798873 33838893 33738904
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