[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 100443
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100442
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-100545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 PM CST Thu Mar 09 2017

Areas affected...Western/middle TN...northern MS...northern/central
AL...and far northwestern GA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 74...

Valid 100442Z - 100545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 74
continues.

SUMMARY...Mainly a damaging wind threat continues across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 74. A downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
likely be needed soon if current trends continue. Probability of new
watch issuance is around 80%.

DISCUSSION...A well organized bowing line of thunderstorms extends
from approximately 15 miles north of Nashville to 55 miles east of
Jackson TN as of 0440Z, moving quickly eastward/southeastward. This
line has had multiple wind damage reports associated with it over
the past several hours across western TN/KY, and the airmass
downstream across middle TN into northern MS/AL remains weakly
unstable, with MLCAPE generally ranging from 250-500 J/kg. Mainly a
damaging wind threat should continue to progress southeastward with
the line across the remainder of middle TN and into northern AL/MS,
likely within the next hour or so given a forward speed around 40-55
kt at the apex of the bow. Some hail threat will persist with an
embedded supercell at the southern flank of the line in southern
middle TN, as well as with warm air advection driven elevated
convection ahead of the line. A brief tornado may also be possible
with embedded circulations within the line given effective SRH
values ranging from 250-400 m2/s2 per 04Z RAP Mesoanalysis and
recent VWPs from area radars. Given current radar trends and the
likelihood for damaging wind gusts to continue with the
southeastward moving bow, a downstream watch will likely need to be
considered soon for some portions of northern MS, northern/central
AL, and perhaps far northwestern GA.

..Gleason/Hart.. 03/10/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   36548592 36228558 35608537 34578517 33908580 33798694
            33988868 34279024 35308986 35708804 36138747 36558696
            36548592

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