[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 100159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100158
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-100330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CST Thu Mar 09 2017

Areas affected...Parts of western KY and middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 100158Z - 100330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...An initial large hail threat should transition to mainly a
damaging wind risk later this evening as a line of thunderstorms
moves across this region. A local extension of Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 72 will likely be needed in parts of western KY, and a
downstream watch issuance in middle TN will likely be required in
the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have rapidly developed across western KY
ahead of line of thunderstorms over the MO Bootheel region within a
low-level moisture plume and southwesterly low-level jet. Although
this leading activity is likely elevated above a stable near-surface
layer, strong deep shear will favor updraft organization and
associated large hail threat. Damaging winds will likely become the
main threat later this evening with a bowing line beginning to
become more organized over southeast MO. Low-level moist air should
continue to develop northeastward into middle TN and parts of
southern KY per latest surface observations and short-term model
guidance, which will support a continuation of surface-based
thunderstorms and a damaging wind threat.

..Gleason/Hart.. 03/10/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...

LAT...LON   36318787 36568801 36688871 37068896 37428817 37008678
            36518590 35088594 35088789 36318787
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