[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011609
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011608
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-011815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0241
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

Areas affected...Northern/central MS...southern middle/eastern
TN...northern/central AL...and northwestern GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 011608Z - 011815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...An increasing severe threat is expected over the next
several hours, with all severe hazards possible, including a few
tornadoes. New tornado watch issuance is likely by 18Z.

DISCUSSION...Mid-level southwesterly flow along a cold front in
middle/western TN has slowed the southeastward movement of the
front. A line of convection along/just ahead of the front has
displayed some strong to damaging wind threat over the past several
hours. The airmass across northern MS/AL ahead of the will continue
to destabilize through the afternoon even with partly to mostly
cloudy skies present. Steep mid-level lapse rates with an elevated
mixed layer are present on the 12Z Jackson, MS sounding and
sufficient low-level moisture across the area will support MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear will
support supercell structures both within and ahead of the line,
particularly across northern MS into northern/central AL where
semi-discrete convection is already developing as of 16Z. Although
low-level flow is veered generally to southwesterly, sufficient
curvature in the 0-3 km layer will support effective SRH around
250-300 m2/s2, which suggests at least some tornado threat will
likely develop. Large hail will able be possible with the initial
discrete convection, with damaging winds becoming more probable with
time as thunderstorms congeal into a line.

..Gleason/Hart.. 03/01/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33048725 32588875 32449003 32409092 32899121 33579106
            34419052 34818974 35428794 35648655 35508550 35258414
            34708403 33948531 33048725

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