[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011718
VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-011915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1212
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2017

Areas affected...Southern Kentucky...middle through eastern
Tennessee...western North Carolina...northern Georgia...and northern
Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 011718Z - 011915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms should increase in intensity and coverage
over the course of the afternoon, with hail and damaging wind
potential increasing.  A WW may be needed this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed in western
Kentucky and middle Tennessee over the past couple of hours.  These
storms are in an environment characterized by modest deep shear
profiles (25-30 knots) and moderate to strong instability (2000-3000
J/kg MUCAPE), with forcing for ascent provided by subtle low-level
convergence (westerly to southwesterly low-level flow) and the
glancing influence of a mid-level shortwave trough over Indiana
aiding in ongoing convective development.

Models and observations support a gradual, yet continued increase in
convective coverage over the course of the afternoon, with an
attendant increase in damaging wind and marginally severe hail
potential - especially in eastern Tennessee.  Convective trends are
being monitored, and a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed for
parts of the region later this afternoon.

..Cook/Grams.. 07/01/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...
PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   33948816 35038812 36068804 36618780 36908728 37088672
            37118623 37198530 37228408 37098330 36928260 36738217
            36358199 35768225 35128277 34478355 34018511 33748657
            33868778 33948816
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