[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 010147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010146
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-010345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0224
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Areas affected...Southern Indiana...western Kentucky and
Tennessee...northeast Arkansas...southeast Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 41...43...

Valid 010146Z - 010345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 41, 43 continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered supercells, some tornadic, are possible this
evening from northern Arkansas into southern Illinois and Indiana. A
new tornado watch is likely, replacing eastern parts of tornado
watches 41 and 43.

DISCUSSION...Widely spaced supercells currently persist across
southeast MO and northeast AR, with strong rotation and tornadoes
reported at times. These cells will continue northeastward across
the MS river, where an expansive area of favorable instability and
shear remain. In fact, the low-level jet is forecast to increase
further, only adding to tornado favorability. Area VAD wind profiles
show observed 0-1 km SRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, more than favorable
for tornadic supercells given MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg.

Other cells were beginning to form as of 0140 Z across northern AR
and southern MO in between the two primary clusters. A further
increase in storm coverage is possible this evening with main
lifting mechanism being low-level warm advection.

..Jewell.. 03/01/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...
SGF...

LAT...LON   35328972 34989187 35229244 35599271 36039276 38228973
            39118822 39428664 39268621 38838604 38148620 36578781
            35328972
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